TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing windows, and settlement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average with 50 distinct price thresholds. These are incompatible frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same event.Hero Tip:
Do not assume positions on Polymarket and Kalshi are equivalent hedges. Polymarket's binary up/down outcome depends on Binance candle data; Kalshi's 50 separate markets each depend on whether BRTI crosses specific $500 thresholds. A Bitcoin price move that resolves YES on one platform may resolve NO on the other due to source divergence and timing window differences.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT pair 1-hour candle open and close prices. Market resolves YES (Up) if close >= open, NO (Down) if close < open. Single binary outcome. Key quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second simple average taken in the 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT. Contains 50 separate Yes/No markets, each with distinct price thresholds ranging from $53,999.99 to $78,499.99 in $500 increments. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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