TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5PM ET

Volume:
$3,186,875

$73,000 or above

 - Kalshi

$73,000 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Apr 10, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$73,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$440,834
N/A
N/A
$150,266
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$270,602
N/A
N/A
$48,841
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$248,128
N/A
N/A
$75,247
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$205,431
N/A
N/A
$46,162
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$128,722
N/A
N/A
$37,795
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$104,941
N/A
N/A
$53,767
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$94,037
N/A
N/A
$25,668
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$90,868
N/A
N/A
$24,898
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$77,106
N/A
N/A
$30,048
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$65,460
N/A
N/A
$28,565
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$60,052
N/A
N/A
$28,374
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$58,433
N/A
N/A
$18,505
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$54,149
N/A
N/A
$14,187
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41,525
N/A
N/A
$30,899
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$40,220
N/A
N/A
$15,034
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$34,636
N/A
N/A
$15,023
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,093
N/A
N/A
$10,103
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,458
N/A
N/A
$12,302
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20,481
N/A
N/A
$7,061
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,992
N/A
N/A
$12,582
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,237
N/A
N/A
$7,063
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,179
N/A
N/A
$14,500
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,362
N/A
N/A
$12,560
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,271
N/A
N/A
$10,914
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,096
N/A
N/A
$12,070
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing windows, and settlement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average with 50 distinct price thresholds. These are incompatible frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same event.Hero tip: Do not assume positions on Polymarket and Kalshi are equivalent hedges. Polymarket's binary up/down outcome depends on Binance candle data; Kalshi's 50 separate markets each depend on whether BRTI crosses specific $500 thresholds. A Bitcoin price move that resolves YES on one platform may resolve NO on the other due to source divergence and timing window differences.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT pair 1-hour candle open and close prices. Market resolves YES (Up) if close >= open, NO (Down) if close < open. Single binary outcome. Key quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second simple average taken in the 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT. Contains 50 separate Yes/No markets, each with distinct price thresholds ranging from $53,999.99 to $78,499.99 in $500 increments. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.