TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München
Volume:
$3,980,363
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming DFB-Pokal game, scheduled for Wednesday, April 22, 2026 between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers three separate binary markets (draw, Leverkusen win, Bayern win) that are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, while Kalshi presents a single market that resolves YES for any outcome (win, tie, or loss), making it logically incoherent as a prediction market.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's market entirely—it resolves YES regardless of the match result, making it unhedgeable and unsuitable for directional betting. Use Polymarket's three markets to express any view on the match outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets covering all possible outcomes: (1) Draw resolves YES if match ends 0-0 or is canceled with no makeup; (2) Leverkusen win resolves YES only if Leverkusen wins in 90+stoppage minutes; (3) Bayern win resolves YES only if Bayern wins in 90+stoppage minutes. Exactly one will resolve YES. Resolution source: official DFB statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match end.
- Kalshi: Single market with three resolution clauses: resolves YES if Bayern wins, resolves YES if tie occurs, or resolves YES if Leverkusen wins. This creates a logical contradiction—the market resolves YES for all possible match outcomes, rendering it non-functional as a prediction instrument. Quote: 'If Bayern Munich wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Leverkusen wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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