TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München
Volume:
$2,831,290
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets span match outcome (win/loss/draw) on Polymarket and total goals over/under thresholds on Kalshi, all resolved based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Market scope divergence: Polymarket settles on match outcome (1X2 result), while Kalshi settles on total goals scored. These are orthogonal dimensions of the same match with no logical contradiction.Hero Tip:
Recognize these as separate trading dimensions. A Bayern victory is independent of whether total goals exceed 2.5 or 3.5. Use both markets to construct nuanced match views (e.g., Bayern win with low scoring, or draw with high scoring). Both resolve from official Bundesliga data on identical time scope, so source and timing risk is aligned.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three binary outcome markets: Bayern win Yes/No, Leverkusen win Yes/No, Draw Yes/No. Each resolves to Yes only if that specific outcome occurs in 90+stoppage minutes. Primary source is official Bundesliga statistics within 2 hours; consensus reporting used if delayed. Cancellation with no makeup: Bayern and Leverkusen markets resolve No, Draw resolves Yes.
- Kalshi: Four independent over/under markets on combined goals: >1.5, >2.5, >3.5, >4.5. Each resolves Yes if combined goals exceed threshold after 90+stoppage minutes. Resolution source is official match statistics. No explicit cancellation clause provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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