TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München
kalshi
polymarket

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München

Volume:
$2,831,290

Draw (Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München)

 - Polymarket

Draw (Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München) - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 14, 2026

Closed: Mar 14, 10:30 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Draw (Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$256,891
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 1.5 goals scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,947
N/A
N/A
$10,532
Settled
Yes
polymarket

FC Bayern München

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,027,939
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$498,794
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 3.5 goals scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,897
N/A
N/A
$13,959
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 2.5 goals scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,801
N/A
N/A
$4,493
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 4.5 goals scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,022
N/A
N/A
$3,787
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers a Bundesliga match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets span match outcome (win/loss/draw) on Polymarket and total goals over/under thresholds on Kalshi, all resolved based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market scope divergence: Polymarket settles on match outcome (1X2 result), while Kalshi settles on total goals scored. These are orthogonal dimensions of the same match with no logical contradiction.Hero tip: Recognize these as separate trading dimensions. A Bayern victory is independent of whether total goals exceed 2.5 or 3.5. Use both markets to construct nuanced match views (e.g., Bayern win with low scoring, or draw with high scoring). Both resolve from official Bundesliga data on identical time scope, so source and timing risk is aligned.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three binary outcome markets: Bayern win Yes/No, Leverkusen win Yes/No, Draw Yes/No. Each resolves to Yes only if that specific outcome occurs in 90+stoppage minutes. Primary source is official Bundesliga statistics within 2 hours; consensus reporting used if delayed. Cancellation with no makeup: Bayern and Leverkusen markets resolve No, Draw resolves Yes.
  • Kalshi: Four independent over/under markets on combined goals: >1.5, >2.5, >3.5, >4.5. Each resolves Yes if combined goals exceed threshold after 90+stoppage minutes. Resolution source is official match statistics. No explicit cancellation clause provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.