TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05
Volume:
$1,064,494
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Bundesliga match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1. FSV Mainz 05 scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets across platforms assess the outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market includes an explicit cancellation clause (resolves YES if game canceled with no make-up), while Kalshi's draw market lacks any stated cancellation logic, creating potential settlement divergence in a cancellation scenario.Hero Tip:
Confirm Kalshi's cancellation policy in writing before the match date. If the game is canceled, Polymarket draw traders will receive YES resolution while Kalshi traders face ambiguity. Consider this tail risk when positioning across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Leverkusen win (YES if Leverkusen wins, NO otherwise), Mainz win (YES if Mainz wins, NO otherwise), and Draw (YES if match ends in a draw OR if game is canceled entirely with no make-up, NO otherwise). All reference 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.'
- Kalshi: Three binary markets with identical resolution logic: each resolves YES if its respective outcome occurs (Tie, Mainz win, or Leverkusen win) after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause stated. Key Quote: 'If Tie wins... If Mainz wins... If Leverkusen wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.