TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Avalanche vs. Stars
Volume:
$436,523
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On April 4 at 3:00 PM ET, the Colorado Avalanche face the Dallas Stars in an NHL matchup. Markets cover three dimensions: the moneyline winner (Avalanche vs. Stars), and combined goal totals across five thresholds (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5). All resolution hinges on the final official score, including overtime and shootout adjustments.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different underlying events. Kalshi settles on spread outcomes (win margins of 1.5+ or 2.5+ goals), while Polymarket settles on moneyline (who wins) and total goals (combined score thresholds). These are logically incompatible settlement bases for the same game.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets move together. A Kalshi YES (e.g., Colorado wins by >1.5) can occur independently of Polymarket outcomes (e.g., Avalanche moneyline or O/U 6.5). Arbitrage or hedge strategies must account for the fact that one platform's YES does not imply the other's YES. Monitor both platforms separately.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves YES exclusively on spread outcomes—Colorado wins by >1.5 goals, Colorado wins by >2.5 goals, Dallas wins by >1.5 goals, or Dallas wins by >2.5 goals. Each of the four markets resolves YES to exactly one of these margin scenarios. Quote: 'If Colorado wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Dallas wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on moneyline (Avalanche vs. Stars winner) and total goals scored (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 combined goals), plus a spread market (Stars -1.5 and Avalanche -1.5). These outcomes are independent of Kalshi's spread logic. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Avalanche and Stars combine to score 7 or more goals' (O/U 6.5) and 'If the Avalanche win, the market will resolve to Avalanche.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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