TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Avalanche vs. Capitals
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 22 at 12:30PM ET: If the Avalanche win, the market will resolve to "Avalanche". If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to "Capitals". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different event types. Kalshi settles on the winner of the game (binary: Capitals win OR Avalanche win), while Polymarket offers multiple markets on total goals scored (Over/Under at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 thresholds) and moneyline/spread outcomes. Kalshi's market is logically contradictory—it states both a Capitals win and an Avalanche win resolve to YES, making it impossible to have a single resolution.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market as written—it contains a logical error that makes it unresolvable. If you hold positions on Polymarket, note that Kalshi's malformed rules create settlement risk. Clarify with Kalshi support whether their market should resolve YES only if either team wins (standard moneyline) or if there is a data entry error.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market contains a critical logical contradiction. Both rules state 'the market resolves to Yes'—one for a Capitals win and one for an Avalanche win. This means every possible outcome (Capitals win or Avalanche win) would resolve YES, which is logically impossible for a binary market. The stated rules are: 'If WSH Capitals wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If COL Avalanche wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers five separate markets on the same game: moneyline (Avalanche vs. Capitals winner), spread (Avalanche -1.5), and four Over/Under total-goals markets (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 thresholds). Each resolves independently based on combined goals scored or final winner. Example: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Avalanche and Capitals combine to score 7 or more goals in this game.'
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