TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Avalanche vs. Blues
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 7 at 8:00PM ET: If the Avalanche win, the market will resolve to "Avalanche". If the Blues win, the market will resolve to "Blues". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on the winner of the game (either team winning resolves to YES), while Polymarket resolves on multiple distinct markets: game winner, point spreads, and over/under goal totals. These are logically incompatible settlement frameworks.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket positions in this group. Kalshi's binary YES outcome (either team wins) cannot be directly arbitraged against Polymarket's directional markets (Avalanche vs. Blues winner) or totals markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5). Treat each platform's market set as independent.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines a single binary market where resolution to YES occurs if EITHER the STL Blues OR the COL Avalanche wins the April 7, 2026 game. This creates a tautological market (one of the two teams must win, so YES is guaranteed unless the game is canceled). Quote: 'If STL Blues wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If COL Avalanche wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers five separate markets with different settlement logics: (1) directional winner market (Avalanche vs. Blues), (2) spread market (Avalanche -1.5), and (3-5) four over/under totals markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 combined goals). Each resolves independently based on final score including overtime and shootout adjustments. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Avalanche if the Avalanche win... Otherwise, this market will resolve to Blues' and 'In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.'
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