TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 20 at 8:30PM ET: If the Avalanche win, the market will resolve to "Avalanche". If the Blackhawks win, the market will resolve to "Blackhawks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on game winner (both teams' wins resolve to YES), while Polymarket resolves on moneyline winner (Avalanche vs. Blackhawks), totals (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), and spread (-1.5). The Kalshi market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market in this group—it contains a critical logical flaw where both possible outcomes (Avalanche win OR Blackhawks win) are stated to resolve to YES, making settlement impossible. Trade only Polymarket's well-defined moneyline, totals, and spread markets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines a single market where 'If COL Avalanche wins...then resolves to Yes' AND 'If CHI Blackhawks wins...then resolves to Yes.' This is a logical contradiction—exactly one team must win, so both outcomes cannot both resolve YES. The market is unresolvable as written.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers five separate, well-defined markets: (1) Moneyline (Avalanche vs. Blackhawks, resolves to winner name), (2) O/U 6.5 (combined goals ≥7 = Over), (3) O/U 4.5 (combined goals ≥5 = Over), (4) O/U 5.5 (combined goals ≥6 = Over), (5) O/U 7.5 (combined goals ≥8 = Over), and (6) Spread -1.5 (Avalanche wins by ≥2 goals). Each market has mutually exclusive outcomes and clear resolution logic.
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