TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Austin FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy
Volume:
$887,322
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, April 11, 2026 between Austin FC and Los Angeles Galaxy.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge fundamentally on market scope and resolution logic. Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Austin win, Draw, LA Galaxy win), while Kalshi offers a single market that resolves YES for ANY outcome (tie, Austin win, or LA Galaxy win), making Kalshi's market logically incoherent and unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's market entirely—it resolves YES regardless of match outcome, making it a guaranteed payout with no predictive value. Trade only on Polymarket, where the three binary markets are properly structured: exactly one will resolve YES and two will resolve NO based on the actual match result.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound market design: Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Austin win, Draw, or LA Galaxy win) will resolve YES and the other two resolve NO. Each market has identical resolution source (official MLS statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours) and identical scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time only). Quote: 'If Austin FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (and identical logic for Draw and LA Galaxy markets).
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's single market contains three overlapping resolution conditions that collectively cover all possible match outcomes—tie, Austin win, or LA Galaxy win—each triggering a YES resolution. This creates a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES regardless of the actual result, rendering it unresolvable and eliminating all predictive differentiation. Quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Austin wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Los Angeles G wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.