TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Atlanta United FC vs. Nashville SC
Volume:
$642,727
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, April 18, 2026 between Atlanta United FC and Nashville SC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Atlanta win, Draw, Nashville win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines a single ternary market where ALL three outcomes resolve YES simultaneously. This creates a logical contradiction: the same match result cannot resolve to YES on all three Kalshi outcomes while only one Polymarket outcome resolves YES.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge these markets. On Polymarket, you are betting on a single outcome; on Kalshi, you are betting on the match occurring and completing (all three outcomes pay out). If you buy YES on Polymarket Atlanta and YES on Kalshi Atlanta, you face basis risk: Kalshi pays on any result, but Polymarket only pays if Atlanta wins. Conversely, buying all three Kalshi outcomes guarantees a payout but is economically equivalent to betting the match completes—not a directional bet.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets, each mutually exclusive. Exactly one of the three (Atlanta win, Draw, Nashville win) will resolve YES; the other two resolve NO. Resolution source is official MLS statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion. Cancellation with no make-up resolves the Draw market to YES and the win markets to NO.
- Kalshi: Single ternary market with three resolution paths: 'If Atlanta wins... resolves to Yes', 'If Nashville wins... resolves to Yes', 'If Tie wins... resolves to Yes'. The market structure implies all three outcomes are valid resolution states, but the phrasing does not explicitly state whether only one or all three can resolve YES simultaneously. Standard ternary interpretation would be exactly one outcome occurs, but the market language does not enforce mutual exclusivity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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