TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC
Volume:
$1,918,897
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming UEFA Europa League game, scheduled for Thursday, March 19, 2026 between Aston Villa FC and Lille OSC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on goal-differential thresholds (>1.5 or >2.5 goals for either team), while Polymarket settles on match outcomes (draw, Lille win, Aston Villa win). These are fundamentally different resolution scopes: Kalshi requires a margin threshold, whereas Polymarket resolves on the final result regardless of margin.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi, your YES outcome requires a decisive margin (>1.5 or >2.5 goals). If you bet on Polymarket, your outcome depends only on the final result (win/loss/draw). A 1-0 or 1-1 result will resolve differently across platforms: Kalshi markets may resolve NO while Polymarket markets resolve YES or NO based on the outcome type alone.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves YES if either team wins by more than 1.5 goals OR either team wins by more than 2.5 goals. This is a goal-differential threshold model: 'If Lille wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Aston Villa wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.' A 1-0, 1-1, or 2-1 result would not trigger a YES resolution on any Kalshi market.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on binary match outcomes (draw YES/NO, Lille win YES/NO, Aston Villa win YES/NO) with no goal-differential requirement. A Lille or Aston Villa win of any margin (1-0, 2-1, 3-0, etc.) resolves the corresponding win market to YES: 'If Lille OSC wins, this market will resolve to Yes' and 'If Aston Villa FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes.' A draw of any scoreline (0-0, 1-1, 2-2) resolves the draw market to YES.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.