TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC
Volume:
$1,840,508
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional EPL soccer match between Aston Villa FC (home) and Leeds United FC (away) scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span three outcome categories: Leeds win, Aston Villa win, and draw, plus granular margin-of-victory thresholds on Kalshi.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi differ on how cancellation is handled. Polymarket explicitly resolves the draw market to Yes if canceled (no make-up), while win/loss resolve No; Kalshi margin markets lack explicit cancellation language, creating ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Treat Polymarket draw and win/loss as inverse cancellation bets if you believe cancellation risk is material. On Kalshi, assume margin markets resolve No if no match occurs, but verify with platform support. Hedge across platforms if cancellation probability is non-trivial.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three binary markets (Leeds win, Aston Villa win, draw) all reference postponement (market stays open) and cancellation. Win/loss markets resolve No on cancellation; draw market resolves Yes on cancellation. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No"' (win/loss) and 'this market will resolve "Yes"' (draw).
- Kalshi: Four margin-of-victory markets (Aston Villa >2.5, >1.5; Leeds >2.5, >1.5 goals) specify the match is 'originally scheduled for Feb 21, 2026' and scope is 90 minutes plus stoppage time, but do not explicitly address postponement or cancellation. Resolution is conditional on a margin being achieved, with no fallback clause. Key Quote: 'If [team] wins by more than [X] goals in the Leeds United at Aston Villa professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for Feb 21, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.