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$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC
polymarket
kalshi

Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC

Volume:
$1,840,508

Aston Villa wins by over 1.5 goals

 - Kalshi

Aston Villa wins by over 1.5 goals - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 21, 2026

Closed: Feb 21, 1:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Aston Villa wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,612
N/A
N/A
$6,704
Settled
No
kalshi

Leeds United wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,203
N/A
N/A
$1,167
Settled
No
kalshi

Aston Villa wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$794
N/A
N/A
$784
Settled
No
kalshi

Leeds United wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$365
N/A
N/A
$348
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC)

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$84,768
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Aston Villa FC

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,481,582
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Leeds United FC

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$264,183
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers the professional EPL soccer match between Aston Villa FC (home) and Leeds United FC (away) scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span three outcome categories: Leeds win, Aston Villa win, and draw, plus granular margin-of-victory thresholds on Kalshi.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi differ on how cancellation is handled. Polymarket explicitly resolves the draw market to Yes if canceled (no make-up), while win/loss resolve No; Kalshi margin markets lack explicit cancellation language, creating ambiguity.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket draw and win/loss as inverse cancellation bets if you believe cancellation risk is material. On Kalshi, assume margin markets resolve No if no match occurs, but verify with platform support. Hedge across platforms if cancellation probability is non-trivial.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three binary markets (Leeds win, Aston Villa win, draw) all reference postponement (market stays open) and cancellation. Win/loss markets resolve No on cancellation; draw market resolves Yes on cancellation. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No"' (win/loss) and 'this market will resolve "Yes"' (draw).
  • Kalshi: Four margin-of-victory markets (Aston Villa >2.5, >1.5; Leeds >2.5, >1.5 goals) specify the match is 'originally scheduled for Feb 21, 2026' and scope is 90 minutes plus stoppage time, but do not explicitly address postponement or cancellation. Resolution is conditional on a margin being achieved, with no fallback clause. Key Quote: 'If [team] wins by more than [X] goals in the Leeds United at Aston Villa professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for Feb 21, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.