TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP - Halftime Result
Volume:
$45,690
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between Arsenal FC and Sporting CP, scheduled for April 15, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution rules contain a logical contradiction that makes the market fundamentally unresolvable. Kalshi resolves to Yes for all three possible halftime outcomes (Arsenal win, Sporting CP win, or tie), whereas Polymarket correctly structures three separate binary markets (Arsenal leading, Draw, Sporting CP leading) where exactly one resolves Yes based on the actual halftime result.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's halftime result market—it is logically broken and will resolve Yes regardless of outcome, making it impossible to lose. Polymarket's three separate markets are the only reliable way to bet on halftime outcomes. If you hold Kalshi positions, expect resolution disputes or platform intervention.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's three resolution rules all resolve to Yes, creating a logical impossibility where every possible halftime outcome (Arsenal win, Sporting CP win, or tie) triggers a Yes resolution. This violates basic market design: 'If Arsenal is the winner...then the market resolves to Yes. If Sporting CP is the winner...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound market logic: Polymarket structures three separate binary markets covering all halftime outcomes. Arsenal leading resolves Yes only if Arsenal wins the first half; Draw resolves Yes only if the halftime score is tied; Sporting CP leading resolves Yes only if Sporting CP wins. Exactly one market will resolve Yes based on the actual result: 'If Arsenal FC wins within the first 45 minutes...this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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