TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC
kalshi
polymarket

Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC

Volume:
$12,082,078

Arsenal FC

 - Polymarket

Arsenal FC - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 1, 2026

Closed: Mar 1, 11:30 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Arsenal FC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,093,607
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chelsea FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,263,313
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$594,704
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Arsenal wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,600
N/A
N/A
$49,197
Settled
No
kalshi

Arsenal wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,429
N/A
N/A
$35,220
Settled
No
kalshi

Chelsea wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,351
N/A
N/A
$20,048
Settled
No
kalshi

Chelsea wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,074
N/A
N/A
$6,049
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers the Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC match scheduled for March 1, 2026, in the English Premier League. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the final outcome (win/loss/draw) and goal differential thresholds, all measured at 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different settlement values: Kalshi uses goal-differential thresholds (SKU-based subset markets), while Polymarket uses binary match outcomes (The Binary Event). Both reference the same match and time window, but resolution triggers differ.Hero tip: Treat these as complementary product lines, not substitutes. Kalshi markets allow precise goal-margin speculation; Polymarket markets are pure outcome bets. A single match result will resolve multiple Kalshi markets but only one Polymarket market. Understand your objective before choosing a platform.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Four goal-differential markets: Arsenal >1.5 goals, Arsenal >2.5 goals, Chelsea >1.5 goals, Chelsea >2.5 goals. Each resolves YES if the specified team wins by the specified margin or greater. Example: Arsenal 3-1 Chelsea triggers YES on both Arsenal >1.5 and Arsenal >2.5 markets.
  • Polymarket: Three binary outcome markets: Arsenal win, Chelsea win, draw. Each resolves YES/NO based solely on match outcome, with no goal-margin component. Example: Arsenal 3-1 Chelsea triggers YES on Arsenal win market only; the 2-goal margin is irrelevant to resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.