TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC
Volume:
$12,082,078
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC match scheduled for March 1, 2026, in the English Premier League. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the final outcome (win/loss/draw) and goal differential thresholds, all measured at 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different settlement values: Kalshi uses goal-differential thresholds (SKU-based subset markets), while Polymarket uses binary match outcomes (The Binary Event). Both reference the same match and time window, but resolution triggers differ.Hero Tip:
Treat these as complementary product lines, not substitutes. Kalshi markets allow precise goal-margin speculation; Polymarket markets are pure outcome bets. A single match result will resolve multiple Kalshi markets but only one Polymarket market. Understand your objective before choosing a platform.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Four goal-differential markets: Arsenal >1.5 goals, Arsenal >2.5 goals, Chelsea >1.5 goals, Chelsea >2.5 goals. Each resolves YES if the specified team wins by the specified margin or greater. Example: Arsenal 3-1 Chelsea triggers YES on both Arsenal >1.5 and Arsenal >2.5 markets.
- Polymarket: Three binary outcome markets: Arsenal win, Chelsea win, draw. Each resolves YES/NO based solely on match outcome, with no goal-margin component. Example: Arsenal 3-1 Chelsea triggers YES on Arsenal win market only; the 2-goal margin is irrelevant to resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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