TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Volume:
$5,340,330
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Champions League match between Arsenal FC and Bayer 04 Leverkusen scheduled for March 17, 2026. Markets track the final outcome (win/loss/draw) within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The group includes binary markets on each team's victory and draw outcomes across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory: three separate Yes/No markets each resolve to Yes if their condition occurs, guaranteeing all three resolve Yes simultaneously since one outcome must occur. Polymarket uses proper binary logic with mutually exclusive outcomes. This makes Kalshi markets fundamentally unresolvable as prediction instruments.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group. They violate basic prediction market logic by guaranteeing simultaneous Yes resolutions. Use only Polymarket's three binary markets (Arsenal Win, Leverkusen Win, Draw), which have proper logical structure where exactly one resolves Yes and two resolve No.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Three separate markets, each structured as: 'If [outcome] occurs, market resolves to Yes.' Since exactly one of the three outcomes (Arsenal win, Leverkusen win, or tie) must occur, all three markets will always resolve to Yes, creating a logical contradiction that makes these non-functional as prediction markets.
- Polymarket: Three independent binary markets with proper mutually exclusive logic: Draw (Yes/No), Arsenal Win (Yes/No), Leverkusen Win (Yes/No). Exactly one resolves Yes and two resolve No based on final 90-minute result. Primary source is UEFA official statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours post-match.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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