TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen
kalshi
polymarket

Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Volume:
$5,340,330

Arsenal FC

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 17, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Arsenal FC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,790,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Arsenal

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,092,960
N/A
N/A
$675,896
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Leverkusen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,003,004
N/A
N/A
$839,547
Settled
No
polymarket

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$790,576
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$497,457
N/A
N/A
$350,531
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$165,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the Champions League match between Arsenal FC and Bayer 04 Leverkusen scheduled for March 17, 2026. Markets track the final outcome (win/loss/draw) within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The group includes binary markets on each team's victory and draw outcomes across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory: three separate Yes/No markets each resolve to Yes if their condition occurs, guaranteeing all three resolve Yes simultaneously since one outcome must occur. Polymarket uses proper binary logic with mutually exclusive outcomes. This makes Kalshi markets fundamentally unresolvable as prediction instruments.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group. They violate basic prediction market logic by guaranteeing simultaneous Yes resolutions. Use only Polymarket's three binary markets (Arsenal Win, Leverkusen Win, Draw), which have proper logical structure where exactly one resolves Yes and two resolve No.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Three separate markets, each structured as: 'If [outcome] occurs, market resolves to Yes.' Since exactly one of the three outcomes (Arsenal win, Leverkusen win, or tie) must occur, all three markets will always resolve to Yes, creating a logical contradiction that makes these non-functional as prediction markets.
  • Polymarket: Three independent binary markets with proper mutually exclusive logic: Draw (Yes/No), Arsenal Win (Yes/No), Leverkusen Win (Yes/No). Exactly one resolves Yes and two resolve No based on final 90-minute result. Primary source is UEFA official statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours post-match.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.