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$134.1b

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$133,388,117

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$1,436,095,462

405,232

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30,526

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2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (W)
kalshi
polymarket

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (W)

Volume:
$2,736

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (W)

 - Polymarket

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (W) - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 16, 2026

Closed: Feb 14, 1:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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Result
polymarket

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (W)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Marshall

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
-$22,915
$1,506
0%
0%
$1,498
N/A
kalshi

Arkansas St.

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
-$4,379
$1,199
0%
0%
$1,173
N/A
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers the women's college basketball game between Arkansas State Red Wolves and Marshall Thundering Herd scheduled for February 14, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. The markets resolve based on which team wins the game, with provisions for postponements and cancellations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary resolution logic is internally contradictory, mapping both possible game outcomes (Marshall win and Arkansas State win) to the same Yes result, rendering the market unresolvable. Polymarket uses a coherent categorical structure with explicit edge-case rules.Hero tip: Avoid trading on Kalshi until the resolution logic is corrected. The market cannot distinguish between the two teams winning. Polymarket is the only platform with a logically sound and resolvable structure for this event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure with critical logical flaw: both Marshall win and Arkansas State win are stated to resolve to Yes. This makes the market unable to differentiate outcomes. Key Quote: If Marshall wins...resolves to Yes. If Arkansas St. wins...resolves to Yes.
  • Polymarket: Categorical winner-based resolution with coherent logic: Marshall win resolves to Marshall Thundering Herd, Arkansas State win resolves to Arkansas State Red Wolves. Includes postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50) provisions. Key Quote: If Arkansas State wins, resolves to Arkansas State Red Wolves. If Marshall wins, resolves to Marshall Thundering Herd.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.