TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Kentucky Wildcats (W)
Volume:
$474,427
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Women's College Basketball (WBB) matchup between the Arkansas Razorbacks and Kentucky Wildcats scheduled for March 4, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the outcome of this single game, with resolution tied to the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction where both Arkansas win and Kentucky win outcomes are mapped to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. This is a data integrity failure that prevents proper settlement.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi's market as unreliable until corrected. Use Polymarket as your authoritative source for this matchup. The Kalshi wording appears to be a template error where the second outcome was not properly edited. Contact Kalshi support to confirm the intended resolution logic before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Clean binary structure with mutually exclusive outcomes. Arkansas win resolves to Arkansas Razorbacks, Kentucky win resolves to Kentucky Wildcats. Includes standard edge cases: postponement keeps market open, cancellation without makeup resolves 50-50. Resolution based on final score including overtime.
- Kalshi: Contradictory resolution logic: both Arkansas win and Kentucky win are stated to resolve to Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where every outcome resolves identically, making the market unresolvable. No edge case handling provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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