TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators
Volume:
$2,531,350
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a men's college basketball game between the Arkansas Razorbacks and Florida Gators scheduled for February 28, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), point spread (multiple thresholds), and over/under totals (multiple thresholds) across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's moneyline market contains a logical contradiction: both possible outcomes (Florida win and Arkansas win) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market unresolvable and creating a data integrity failure. Polymarket markets are logically sound and internally consistent.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi moneyline market. It will resolve to Yes regardless of which team wins, rendering it worthless for prediction purposes. Focus trading activity on Polymarket's moneyline, spread, and total markets, which have mutually exclusive outcomes and clear settlement logic. Always cross-check final score against official NCAA.com records.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Moneyline market has a critical logical flaw: both Florida win and Arkansas win resolve to Yes. This creates a tautology where the market always resolves Yes, regardless of game outcome. Quote: 'If Florida wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Arkansas wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Moneyline resolves to 'Arkansas Razorbacks' if Arkansas wins, or 'Florida Gators' if Florida wins—mutually exclusive outcomes. Spread markets resolve based on margin of victory thresholds (-9.5, -10.5, -11.5 for Florida). Over/Under markets resolve based on combined point totals (169, 170, 171, 172 thresholds). All markets include cancellation protocol: postponement keeps market open; full cancellation resolves 50-50.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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