TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines
Volume:
$52,572,323
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on the winner of the NCAA men's college basketball game between the Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines scheduled for April 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET. The winner is determined by the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's markets both resolve to YES for any outcome (either team winning), creating a logical contradiction and making them fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures winner-take-all and over/under markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. This is a data integrity failure on Kalshi's platform.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's moneyline market entirely—it violates basic market logic by resolving YES regardless of outcome. Trade only on Polymarket's markets, which have proper resolution logic: winner-take-all for the moneyline, and clear over/under thresholds for totals and spreads.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Both Kalshi markets state 'If Arizona wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Michigan wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' creating a logical contradiction where every possible outcome resolves to YES. This makes the market unresolvable and violates fundamental market design principles.
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound market logic: Polymarket structures all markets with mutually exclusive outcomes—moneyline resolves to either 'Arizona Wildcats' or 'Michigan Wolverines' (never both), over/under markets resolve to 'Over' or 'Under' based on combined score thresholds, and spread markets resolve based on final margin. All 16 Polymarket markets follow consistent, logically valid resolution rules with proper tie-breaking (50-50 split if game is canceled entirely).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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