TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Aligned Layer FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Aligned token launch, verified against official Aligned Layer social channels (https://x.com/alignedlayer)Core resolution logic:
- FDV = total token supply multiplied by token price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
- Only official tokens launched by Aligned qualify; stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs, and synthetic tokens are excluded
- Token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a valid launch
- Resolution uses the most liquid price source available at the specified time
- Each market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold, No otherwise
- If no token launches by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Token launch timing ambiguity: If token becomes tradable before 4:00 PM ET on launch day, resolution still uses 4:00 PM ET price on the following calendar day. If launch occurs after 4:00 PM ET, the resolution window is 4:00 PM ET the next calendar day.
- Multiple price sources: When multiple exchanges list the token, the most liquid source (typically highest volume) determines the reference price. Platforms must document which source was selected.
- Token supply changes: FDV calculation uses total token supply at 4:00 PM ET on resolution day. If supply mechanics (minting, burning) occur between launch and resolution, the supply at resolution time applies.
- Stablecoin or memecoin ambiguity: If Aligned launches a token that could be classified as a stablecoin, memecoin, LST, or synthetic token, it does not qualify and all markets resolve to No.
- Deadline non-launch: If Aligned does not launch any qualifying token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all eight markets in the group resolve to No regardless of any other factors.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the public launch of Aligned's official token. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No on that deadline date.Follow the signals, not the noise
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