TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines
Volume:
$7,027,118
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines men's college basketball game scheduled for March 27, 2026, at Michigan. The markets track various point-spread outcomes, with Kalshi offering granular spread thresholds ranging from 1.5 to 25.5 points for Michigan victories, plus Alabama victory spreads of 2.5 and 5.5 points. Resolution depends on the final official game score differential.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi contains 12 mutually exclusive binary conditions (some requiring Alabama wins, others requiring Michigan wins at various thresholds), creating logical contradictions where multiple conditions cannot simultaneously resolve to YES. Polymarket uses standard moneyline, spread, and over/under markets with clear, non-contradictory resolution rules.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group without clarification from Kalshi. The 12 conditions are logically impossible to satisfy simultaneously (e.g., Condition 7 requires Alabama to win by >5.5 points, while Condition 10 requires Michigan to win by >1.5 points — both cannot occur in the same game). Polymarket markets are resolvable and standard. If you hold Kalshi positions, request emergency settlement guidance before game time.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Contains 12 binary conditions that are mutually exclusive and logically contradictory. Conditions require both Alabama wins (Conditions 7, 11, 12) and Michigan wins at multiple thresholds (Conditions 1–6, 8–10) to all resolve YES, which is impossible in a single game outcome. Example: 'If Michigan wins by more than 1.5 points... then the market resolves to Yes' (Condition 10) directly contradicts 'If Alabama wins by more than 5.5 points... then the market resolves to Yes' (Condition 7). No resolution framework is specified for which condition takes precedence or how a single outcome maps to a single YES/NO result.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard prediction market logic: Provides 18 distinct, non-overlapping markets (1 moneyline, 10 spread markets at different thresholds, 7 over/under markets). Each market has a single, clear resolution rule tied to final game score. Example moneyline: 'If the Alabama Crimson Tide win, the market will resolve to Alabama Crimson Tide. If the Michigan Wolverines win, the market will resolve to Michigan Wolverines.' Example spread: 'This market will resolve to Michigan Wolverines if the Michigan Wolverines win the game by 10 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Alabama Crimson Tide.' All markets reference the same source (NCAA.com final score including overtime) and resolve 50-50 only if the game is canceled entirely with no makeup.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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