Kalshi's three markets collectively cover all possible outcomes (Al-Ittihad win, Al-Hazem win, or tie), each resolving to YES, making it logically impossible for the group to have a single consistent resolution. Polymarket's three markets are mutually exclusive and properly structured. This fundamental logical contradiction in Kalshi's market design creates an unresolvable conflict with Polymarket's standard binary outcome framework.
Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group without clarification from the platform. Kalshi's structure guarantees that at least two of its three markets will resolve YES simultaneously, violating basic market logic. Polymarket's markets are standard and resolvable. If you hold Kalshi positions, request emergency clarification on whether all three markets are intended to resolve YES for any single match outcome.
Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's three markets are logically contradictory. Market 1 resolves YES if Al-Ittihad wins, Market 2 resolves YES if Al-Hazem wins, and Market 3 resolves YES if a tie occurs. Since exactly one of these three outcomes must occur, all three markets will have at least one resolving YES, violating the principle that markets in a group should be mutually exclusive. The rules state 'If Al-Ittihad wins... then the market resolves to Yes' (Market 1), 'If Al-Hazm wins... then the market resolves to Yes' (Market 2), and 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes' (Market 3).
Polymarket: Aligned with standard market logic: Polymarket's three markets are mutually exclusive and properly structured. Market 1 (Al Hazem win) resolves YES only if Al Hazem wins, otherwise NO. Market 2 (draw) resolves YES only if the match ends in a draw, otherwise NO. Market 3 (Al Ittihad win) resolves YES only if Al Ittihad wins, otherwise NO. Exactly one market will resolve YES. The rules state 'If Al Hazem SC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and similar logic for the other two markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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