This event group covers a Ligue 1 soccer match between AJ Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 scheduled for March 21, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. Markets span multiple outcome types: total goals over/under (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), both teams to score, and spread betting (win margins of 1.5 and 2.5 goals for each team). Resolution depends on the official final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Polymarket uses binary spread resolution (one outcome per market), while Kalshi presents spread conditions as independent Yes/No propositions without explicit mutual exclusivity or No-resolution criteria.
Hero Tip:
For spread markets, confirm with Kalshi whether their Yes/No conditions are mutually exclusive binary outcomes (like Polymarket) or independent proposition markets. Over/Under and Both Teams to Score markets are unified across platforms and safe to trade.
Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket: All spread markets (AJ Auxerre -1.5, -2.5; Stade Brestois 29 -1.5, -2.5) are binary outcomes. One team wins by the threshold or the other team wins by any margin. Key Quote: 'Otherwise, this market will resolve to AJ Auxerre' (or Stade Brestois 29 depending on market). Over/Under markets (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5) and Both Teams to Score are clearly binary (Over/Under or Yes/No).
Kalshi: Four spread conditions presented as independent Yes/No propositions: Auxerre wins by 2.5+, Stade Brest wins by 1.5+, Stade Brest wins by 2.5+, Auxerre wins by 1.5+. No explicit mutual exclusivity stated, and no clear No-resolution logic provided. Key Quote: 'If Auxerre wins by more than 2.5 goals...then the market resolves to Yes' (no corresponding No condition).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.