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Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
kalshi
polymarket

Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

Volume:
$168,724

Nevada wins by over 9.5 Points

 - Kalshi

Nevada wins by over 9.5 Points - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 8, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 9.5 Points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,809
N/A
N/A
$1,431
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 12.5 Points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,088
N/A
N/A
$781
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 24.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,869
N/A
N/A
$48,893
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -25.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 18.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,072
N/A
N/A
$29,500
Settled
No
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 27.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,865
N/A
N/A
$22,756
Settled
No
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 21.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,956
N/A
N/A
$16,519
Settled
No
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 33.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,584
N/A
N/A
$2,302
Settled
No
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 30.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,940
N/A
N/A
$2,054
Settled
No
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 15.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,412
N/A
N/A
$2,086
Settled
No
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 39.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$840
N/A
N/A
$840
Settled
No
kalshi

Nevada wins by over 36.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$743
N/A
N/A
$743
Settled
No
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 39.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
$520
Settled
No
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 9.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$513
N/A
N/A
$513
Settled
No
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 33.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$414
N/A
N/A
$414
Settled
No
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 36.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$413
N/A
N/A
$413
Settled
No
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 18.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$412
N/A
N/A
$412
Settled
No
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 12.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
No
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 27.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$397
N/A
N/A
$397
Settled
No
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 30.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$394
N/A
N/A
$388
Settled
No
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 24.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$394
N/A
N/A
$394
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -24.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 15.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$387
N/A
N/A
$387
Settled
No
kalshi

Air Force wins by over 21.5 Points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$302
N/A
N/A
$302
Settled
No
polymarket

Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 29

Description

This event group covers a men's college basketball game between Air Force Falcons and Nevada Wolf Pack scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), point spreads, and over/under totals across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket offer fundamentally different market structures and point spread thresholds. Kalshi provides 22 granular binary spread markets with thresholds from 9.5 to 39.5 points for both teams, while Polymarket offers only two Nevada spread markets (at 24.5 and 25.5) plus moneyline and over/under totals. Additionally, Kalshi uses exclusive comparison (more than X) while Polymarket uses inclusive (25 or more).Hero tip: Do not assume spread markets are equivalent across platforms. Kalshi traders can bet on Air Force covering at 9.5, 12.5, 15.5, etc., but Polymarket only offers Nevada spreads at 24.5 and 25.5. If you want to trade a specific spread threshold, confirm it exists on your chosen platform. Over/under markets are Polymarket-exclusive. At the exact boundary (e.g., Nevada wins by exactly 25 points), Kalshi's Nevada -24.5 market (more than 24.5) resolves Yes, but Polymarket's Nevada -24.5 market also resolves Yes (25 or more). However, Kalshi's Nevada -25.5 market (more than 25.5) would resolve No, while Polymarket's Nevada -25.5 market (26 or more) would also resolve No. The platforms are internally consistent but structurally different.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 22 binary markets covering Air Force and Nevada wins at 11 distinct point spread thresholds each (9.5, 12.5, 15.5, 18.5, 21.5, 24.5, 27.5, 30.5, 33.5, 36.5, 39.5 points). Each market resolves Yes if the specified team wins by MORE THAN the stated margin. Example: 'If Air Force wins by more than 21.5 points... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Four distinct market types: (1) Moneyline (Air Force vs Nevada winner only), (2) Two point spread markets (Nevada -24.5 and Nevada -25.5, resolving Yes if Nevada wins by 25+ or 26+ points respectively), (3) Four over/under total markets (142.5, 143.5, 144.5, 145.5 combined points). Example: 'This market will resolve to Nevada Wolf Pack if the Nevada Wolf Pack win the game by 25 or more points.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.