TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Volume:
$168,724
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a men's college basketball game between Air Force Falcons and Nevada Wolf Pack scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), point spreads, and over/under totals across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket offer fundamentally different market structures and point spread thresholds. Kalshi provides 22 granular binary spread markets with thresholds from 9.5 to 39.5 points for both teams, while Polymarket offers only two Nevada spread markets (at 24.5 and 25.5) plus moneyline and over/under totals. Additionally, Kalshi uses exclusive comparison (more than X) while Polymarket uses inclusive (25 or more).Hero Tip:
Do not assume spread markets are equivalent across platforms. Kalshi traders can bet on Air Force covering at 9.5, 12.5, 15.5, etc., but Polymarket only offers Nevada spreads at 24.5 and 25.5. If you want to trade a specific spread threshold, confirm it exists on your chosen platform. Over/under markets are Polymarket-exclusive. At the exact boundary (e.g., Nevada wins by exactly 25 points), Kalshi's Nevada -24.5 market (more than 24.5) resolves Yes, but Polymarket's Nevada -24.5 market also resolves Yes (25 or more). However, Kalshi's Nevada -25.5 market (more than 25.5) would resolve No, while Polymarket's Nevada -25.5 market (26 or more) would also resolve No. The platforms are internally consistent but structurally different.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 22 binary markets covering Air Force and Nevada wins at 11 distinct point spread thresholds each (9.5, 12.5, 15.5, 18.5, 21.5, 24.5, 27.5, 30.5, 33.5, 36.5, 39.5 points). Each market resolves Yes if the specified team wins by MORE THAN the stated margin. Example: 'If Air Force wins by more than 21.5 points... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Four distinct market types: (1) Moneyline (Air Force vs Nevada winner only), (2) Two point spread markets (Nevada -24.5 and Nevada -25.5, resolving Yes if Nevada wins by 25+ or 26+ points respectively), (3) Four over/under total markets (142.5, 143.5, 144.5, 145.5 combined points). Example: 'This market will resolve to Nevada Wolf Pack if the Nevada Wolf Pack win the game by 25 or more points.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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