TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
AHL: Manitoba Moose vs. Belleville Senators
Volume:
$6,251
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a single AHL (American Hockey League) matchup between the Manitoba Moose and Belleville Senators scheduled for March 27, 2026 at 7:00 PM EDT. Markets on both Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the outcome of this game, with resolution based on the final score including overtime and shootouts.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction that makes the market fundamentally unresolvable. Kalshi resolves to Yes if either team wins, which means the market resolves Yes for all possible outcomes, violating basic binary market principles. Polymarket correctly structures the market as a binary choice between two mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution rule stating 'If Belleville Senators wins...then resolves to Yes' AND 'If Manitoba Moose wins...then resolves to Yes' creates a logical impossibility where every outcome triggers a Yes resolution. Polymarket's market is the only tradeable version with coherent resolution logic.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier (correct logic): Polymarket structures this as a true binary market where the market resolves to the name of the winning team, with explicit handling for postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Key quote: 'If Manitoba Moose win, the market will resolve to Manitoba Moose. If Belleville Senators win, the market will resolve to Belleville Senators.'
- Kalshi: Outlier (logical contradiction): Kalshi's resolution rules state the market resolves Yes if either team wins, creating a tautology where all possible outcomes result in Yes. Key quote: 'If Belleville Senators wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Manitoba Moose wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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