TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
AHL: Laval Rocket vs. Toronto Marlies
Description
In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for April 19 at 4:00PM ET: If Laval Rocket win, the market will resolve to "Laval Rocket". If Toronto Marlies win, the market will resolve to "Toronto Marlies". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market logic is fundamentally broken: it resolves YES for both possible outcomes (Laval Rocket win OR Toronto Marlies win), making the market logically impossible to resolve to NO. Polymarket correctly implements binary resolution (one winner, one loser).Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. The resolution criteria guarantee YES regardless of game outcome, which violates basic market logic. Polymarket is the only tradeable venue for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary sports match resolution: market resolves to 'Laval Rocket' if Laval wins, or 'Toronto Marlies' if Toronto wins. Exactly one outcome occurs. Includes edge cases for postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Quote: 'If Laval Rocket win, the market will resolve to Laval Rocket. If Toronto Marlies win, the market will resolve to Toronto Marlies.'
- Kalshi: Contradictory logic: market resolves YES if Laval Rocket wins AND resolves YES if Toronto Marlies wins. No NO resolution path is defined. This creates a logical impossibility where the market cannot fail to resolve YES. Quote: 'If Laval Rocket wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Toronto Marlies wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
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