TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Texas Stars
Description
In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for April 28 at 8:00PM ET: If Chicago Wolves win, the market will resolve to "Chicago Wolves". If Texas Stars win, the market will resolve to "Texas Stars". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Texas Stars win and Chicago Wolves win) are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market mathematically unresolvable. Polymarket uses a proper categorical resolution model with explicit edge-case handling.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's version of this market until the logical error is corrected by the platform. The market cannot settle properly as written. Polymarket's market is resolvable and includes proper contingencies for postponement and cancellation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure with critical flaw: both Texas Stars win and Chicago Wolves win are stated to resolve to Yes. This creates an unresolvable market where the actual game outcome cannot determine a unique resolution state. Quote: 'If Texas Stars wins...resolves to Yes. If Chicago Wolves wins...resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Categorical resolution with three explicit outcomes: Chicago Wolves, Texas Stars, or 50-50 split (if canceled). Includes contingency for postponement (market remains open). Quote: 'If Chicago Wolves win, the market will resolve to Chicago Wolves. If Texas Stars win, the market will resolve to Texas Stars. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.'
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