TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. Texas Stars
Volume:
$2,678
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a single AHL (American Hockey League) game between the Bakersfield Condors and Texas Stars scheduled for March 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT. Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the outcome of this matchup, with resolution based on the final score including overtime and shootouts.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Bakersfield win and Texas Stars win) are mapped to the same resolution state (Yes), rendering the market unresolvable and creating a guaranteed arbitrage condition. This is a data integrity failure that makes one platform's market fundamentally unusable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution logic is broken—it will resolve Yes regardless of which team wins, making it impossible to express a directional view. Trade exclusively on Polymarket, which uses proper winner-based binary resolution (Bakersfield Condors vs Texas Stars). Report Kalshi's market to the platform for correction or cancellation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Clean binary winner-take-all logic. Bakersfield win resolves to Bakersfield Condors, Texas win resolves to Texas Stars. Handles postponements (market remains open) and cancellations (50-50 split). Includes shootout rule: one goal added to winner's score for resolution purposes. Source: theahl.com official schedule.
- Kalshi: Contradictory dual-Yes resolution. Both outcomes explicitly state resolution to Yes: 'If Bakersfield Condors wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Texas Stars wins...resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where the market cannot differentiate between outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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