TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
AEK vs. NK Celje
Volume:
$394,810
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League game, scheduled for Thursday, March 19, 2026 between AEK and NK Celje.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic for the same match outcome. Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (AEK win, NK Celje win, draw), while Kalshi offers three markets that all resolve YES for any outcome, making Kalshi's markets logically contradictory and unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group — they contain a logical impossibility. All three Kalshi markets resolve YES regardless of the match result, meaning you cannot lose on any of them. This violates basic prediction market design. Polymarket markets are coherent: exactly one of the three will resolve YES based on the actual match outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound prediction market logic: Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one resolves YES based on the match outcome (AEK win, NK Celje win, or draw). Each market has clear YES/NO resolution tied to a single outcome. Key quote: 'If AEK wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's three markets all resolve YES for any possible match outcome. Market 1 resolves YES if AEK wins. Market 2 resolves YES if NK Celje wins. Market 3 resolves YES if the match ends in a tie. Since the match must result in exactly one of these three outcomes, all three markets will always resolve YES simultaneously, making them logically contradictory and unresolvable as prediction markets. Key quote: 'If AEK Athens wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If NK Celje wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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