TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
AEK Lárnakas vs. Crystal Palace FC
Volume:
$1,269,950
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League game, scheduled for Thursday, March 19, 2026 between AEK Lárnakas and Crystal Palace FC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic for the same match outcome. Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (AEK win, Draw, Crystal Palace win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines a single market that resolves YES for ANY outcome (win, tie, or loss), making Kalshi's market logically unresolvable and creating a direct contradiction.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms assuming equivalent exposure. On Polymarket, you are betting on a specific outcome (one of three mutually exclusive events). On Kalshi, the market resolves YES regardless of the match result, making it a guaranteed payout with no actual predictive value. Avoid Kalshi's market entirely or treat it as a settlement certainty, not a prediction.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket defines three separate binary markets covering all possible match outcomes (AEK win, Draw, Crystal Palace win). Each market resolves YES or NO based on the specific outcome within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES. Key quote: 'If AEK Lárnakas wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines a single market with three resolution conditions that all map to YES: 'If Crystal Palace wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Larnaca wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This market resolves YES for every possible match outcome, rendering it logically incoherent and unresolvable as a prediction market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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