TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC
kalshi
polymarket

Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC

Volume:
$476,542

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 3, 2026

Closed: Apr 3, 7:35 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$90,612
N/A
N/A
$59,608
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$59,227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Auckland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100,646
N/A
N/A
$58,875
Settled
No
polymarket

Auckland FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$81,116
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Adelaide United FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Adelaide

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,797
N/A
N/A
$31,686
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event is for the upcoming Australia A-League game, scheduled for Friday, April 3, 2026 between Adelaide United FC and Auckland FC.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's three markets collectively cover all possible outcomes (Adelaide win, Auckland win, or draw) and each resolves YES for its respective outcome, creating logical contradiction where exactly one must resolve YES regardless of result. Polymarket's three markets are mutually exclusive binary outcomes (Adelaide YES/NO, Draw YES/NO, Auckland YES/NO) that align with standard sports betting logic. The platforms use fundamentally incompatible resolution structures.Hero tip: Do not cross-hedge between Kalshi and Polymarket on this event. Kalshi's structure guarantees one market resolves YES (creating synthetic long exposure), while Polymarket's structure allows all three to resolve NO (if game is canceled). If betting on Kalshi, you are implicitly long the event occurring; on Polymarket, you can be short all outcomes. Verify game status before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Uses three markets that each resolve YES for a single mutually-exclusive outcome (Adelaide win, Auckland win, or draw), guaranteeing exactly one YES resolution if the match completes. Key quote: 'If Adelaide wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Auckland wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Outlier: Uses three independent binary markets (Adelaide YES/NO, Draw YES/NO, Auckland YES/NO) where all three can resolve NO if the game is canceled with no make-up. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (for Adelaide and Auckland) and 'this market will resolve to Yes' (for Draw). This creates asymmetric cancellation logic across the three markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.