TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC
Volume:
$476,542
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Australia A-League game, scheduled for Friday, April 3, 2026 between Adelaide United FC and Auckland FC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's three markets collectively cover all possible outcomes (Adelaide win, Auckland win, or draw) and each resolves YES for its respective outcome, creating logical contradiction where exactly one must resolve YES regardless of result. Polymarket's three markets are mutually exclusive binary outcomes (Adelaide YES/NO, Draw YES/NO, Auckland YES/NO) that align with standard sports betting logic. The platforms use fundamentally incompatible resolution structures.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge between Kalshi and Polymarket on this event. Kalshi's structure guarantees one market resolves YES (creating synthetic long exposure), while Polymarket's structure allows all three to resolve NO (if game is canceled). If betting on Kalshi, you are implicitly long the event occurring; on Polymarket, you can be short all outcomes. Verify game status before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Uses three markets that each resolve YES for a single mutually-exclusive outcome (Adelaide win, Auckland win, or draw), guaranteeing exactly one YES resolution if the match completes. Key quote: 'If Adelaide wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Auckland wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Uses three independent binary markets (Adelaide YES/NO, Draw YES/NO, Auckland YES/NO) where all three can resolve NO if the game is canceled with no make-up. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (for Adelaide and Auckland) and 'this market will resolve to Yes' (for Draw). This creates asymmetric cancellation logic across the three markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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