Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi apply identical resolution logic: the match outcome is determined by the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with the same primary resolution source (official governing body statistics) and identical postponement/cancellation handling.
Primary resolution logic:
Official statistics from AFA (Asociación del Fútbol Argentino) as the governing body for Argentine Primera División, with fallback to credible reporting consensus if official statistics are not published within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Core resolution logic:
Market resolves based on the match outcome after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only (no extra time or penalties).
Polymarket Win markets resolve YES if the named team wins, NO otherwise. Draw market resolves YES if the match ends in a draw, NO otherwise.
Kalshi markets resolve YES if the specified outcome (Argentinos win, Tucuman win, or Tie) occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed.
If the match is canceled with no make-up game, Polymarket win markets resolve NO and draw market resolves YES; Kalshi markets would resolve based on the canceled outcome classification.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Postponement Protocol: If the match is postponed, all markets across both platforms remain open and unresolved until the match is actually played and completed.
Cancellation with No Make-up: If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game scheduled, Polymarket resolves win markets to NO and draw market to YES. Kalshi's resolution in this scenario follows the same outcome-based logic.
Resolution Source Hierarchy: Primary source is official AFA statistics. If AFA does not publish final statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, credible reporting consensus becomes the authoritative source.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official publication of match statistics by AFA within 2 hours of match conclusion, or upon consensus of credible reporting if official statistics are delayed beyond 2 hours.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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