Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Argentinos win, Draw, Platense win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three markets that all resolve YES regardless of outcome, creating a logical contradiction and making Kalshi's markets fundamentally unresolvable as stated.
Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group — they contain a logical error where all three outcomes are marked to resolve YES, making it impossible to determine which market actually settles. Polymarket's three binary markets are coherent and mutually exclusive. Clarify with Kalshi before placing any bets.
Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one will resolve YES based on the match outcome (Argentinos win, Draw, or Platense win). Each market explicitly states it resolves NO for all other outcomes. Quote: 'If AA Argentinos Juniors wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines three markets that all contain identical resolution logic: 'If [outcome X] wins/occurs, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility — all three markets would resolve YES regardless of which outcome actually occurs, violating basic market coherence. Quote: 'If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Argentinos Juniors wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Platense wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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