TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
2026 World Chess Championship: Winner
Description
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 World Chess Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 World Chess Championship per the rules of FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 World Chess Championship tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses coded player identifiers (Player A-J) without explicit name mapping in the source data, creating ambiguity about which of the 14 named Kalshi players correspond to which Polymarket codes. Additionally, Polymarket includes a catch-all "someone else" market and a June 30, 2027 cancellation deadline, while Kalshi's source does not specify these edge cases.Hero Tip:
Obtain the official Polymarket player code legend before trading. Cross-reference all 14 Kalshi player names against Polymarket's 10 coded players and the catch-all to ensure complete coverage. Confirm Kalshi's cancellation and postponement policy matches Polymarket's June 30, 2027 ET deadline, or flag as settlement risk.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Offers 10 individual player markets using coded identifiers (Player A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J) plus one catch-all market (Will someone else win). Includes explicit cancellation clause: if tournament is cancelled, postponed, or incomplete after June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to Other. Primary source is FIDE with credible reporting consensus as fallback. Quote: 'If the 2026 World Chess Championship tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET... this market will resolve to Other.'
- Kalshi: Offers 14 separate binary markets, one per named player (Sindarov, Wei Yi, Firouzja, Esipenko, Bluebaum, Carlsen, Nakamura, Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa, Ding Liren, Giri, Abasov, Caruana, Nepomniachtchi). Each resolves Yes if player wins, implicitly No otherwise. No explicit cancellation, postponement, or catch-all clause provided in source data. Quote: 'If [Player X] wins the World Chess Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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