TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
2026 Men’s Miami Open Winner
Description
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Miami Open Men’s Singles Tournament scheduled for March 15 - March 29, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Miami Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Miami Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 12, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Miami Open (https://www.miamiopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi offers binary YES/NO markets on 26 individual named players, while Polymarket offers a categorical resolution market covering the same 26 named players plus placeholder players (Player A through Player O) and an 'another player' catch-all option. Kalshi's structure requires exactly one market per player to resolve YES if that player wins; Polymarket's structure allows only one categorical outcome to resolve YES across all options.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on a specific named player with a binary YES/NO outcome. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on one outcome in a categorical market where exactly one of 44 possible outcomes (26 named players, 14 placeholders, 1 catch-all, plus 3 unidentified players) will resolve YES. The underlying event is identical, but Kalshi's binary structure and Polymarket's categorical structure mean your position mechanics and risk profiles differ significantly. Ensure you understand which market structure you are using before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers 26 separate binary YES/NO markets, one per named player. Each market resolves YES if and only if that specific player wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open Men's Singles Tournament, and NO otherwise. The resolution source is the official outcome of the tournament. Quote: 'If [Player Name] wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers a single categorical market with 44 possible outcomes: 26 named players (including Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, etc.), 14 placeholder players (Player A through Player O), and one 'another player' catch-all option. Exactly one outcome resolves YES based on who wins the tournament. If the tournament is cancelled or postponed after April 12, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Miami Open Men's Singles Tournament scheduled for March 15 - March 29, 2026. If the 2026 Miami Open Men's Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 12, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to Other.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.