TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
2026 Men’s BNP Paribas Open Winner
Volume:
$10,940,524
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets on who will win the 2026 Men's BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells) tennis championship, scheduled for March 1-15, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer individual winner markets on a curated list of 26 top-seeded and rising players, plus a catch-all 'another player' option on Polymarket.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical core logic: resolution to Yes if the named player wins the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men's Singles Championship; No if ineligible or tournament cancelled/postponed beyond March 31, 2026. Polymarket includes an 'Other' outcome for cancellation/no-winner scenarios, while Kalshi resolves such cases to No, but this is a presentation difference, not a substantive divergence in winner determination.
Primary resolution logic:
Official BNP Paribas Open website (https://bnpparibasopen.com/); credible news consensus as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves Yes if the named player wins the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men's Singles Championship
- Market resolves No if the named player is eliminated, loses in any round, or becomes ineligible per tournament rules
- Market resolves No (Kalshi) or Other (Polymarket) if the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond March 31, 2026
- Market resolves No (Kalshi) or Other (Polymarket) if no winner is declared by March 31, 2026
- Polymarket includes a catch-all 'another player' market that resolves Yes if any player not on the curated list wins the tournament
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Player Withdrawal or Ineligibility: If a listed player withdraws before or during the tournament, or becomes ineligible per ATP/tournament rules, their market resolves to No
- Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 BNP Paribas Open is cancelled or postponed to after March 31, 2026, Kalshi markets resolve to No; Polymarket markets resolve to Other
- No Winner Declared: If no champion is declared by March 31, 2026 due to force majeure or other circumstances, Kalshi resolves to No; Polymarket resolves to Other
- Polymarket 'Another Player' Outcome: Polymarket includes a market for 'another player' winning; this resolves Yes if any player not on the 26-player curated list wins the tournament
- Tie or Shared Title: If tournament rules result in a shared or co-championship (highly unlikely in tennis), resolution follows official BNP Paribas Open determination
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official announcement of the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men's Singles Champion by the BNP Paribas Open or ATP. The tournament is scheduled for March 1-15, 2026; all markets must resolve by March 31, 2026, or default to No (Kalshi) or Other (Polymarket)Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.