TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.8b

24H VOL:

$102,639,054

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,660,434,525

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,604,186,899

483,972

Markets across

36,666

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,879

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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2026 Men’s BNP Paribas Open Winner
kalshi
polymarket

2026 Men’s BNP Paribas Open Winner

Volume:
$10,940,524

Jannik Sinner

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 16, 2026

Closed: Mar 15, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jannik Sinner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,518,569
N/A
N/A
$2,514,165
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jannik Sinner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24,197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Daniil Medvedev

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,260,467
N/A
N/A
$2,954,360
Settled
No
polymarket

Daniil Medvedev

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,269
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Carlos Alcaraz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$501,596
N/A
N/A
$337,551
Settled
No
polymarket

Carlos Alcaraz

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ben Shelton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$237,478
N/A
N/A
$233,761
Settled
No
kalshi

Lorenzo Musetti

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$202,222
N/A
N/A
$181,542
Settled
No
kalshi

Novak Djokovic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$198,058
N/A
N/A
$180,676
Settled
No
kalshi

Alexander Zverev

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$185,574
N/A
N/A
$171,976
Settled
No
polymarket

Alexander Zverev

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jack Draper

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131,875
N/A
N/A
$121,373
Settled
No
polymarket

Jack Draper

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sebastian Korda

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$112,558
N/A
N/A
$112,557
Settled
No
kalshi

Taylor Fritz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$101,994
N/A
N/A
$101,728
Settled
No
kalshi

Arthur Fils

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$99,791
N/A
N/A
$99,790
Settled
No
polymarket

Arthur Fils

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Joao Fonseca

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$98,116
N/A
N/A
$98,066
Settled
No
kalshi

Learner Tien

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74,701
N/A
N/A
$72,946
Settled
No
polymarket

Learner Tien

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Frances Tiafoe

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,566
N/A
N/A
$30,566
Settled
No
kalshi

Cameron Norrie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,673
N/A
N/A
$26,673
Settled
No
polymarket

Cameron Norrie

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Alexander Bublik

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,589
N/A
N/A
$26,589
Settled
No
kalshi

Tommy Paul

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,978
N/A
N/A
$23,978
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 35

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on who will win the 2026 Men's BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells) tennis championship, scheduled for March 1-15, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer individual winner markets on a curated list of 26 top-seeded and rising players, plus a catch-all 'another player' option on Polymarket.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical core logic: resolution to Yes if the named player wins the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men's Singles Championship; No if ineligible or tournament cancelled/postponed beyond March 31, 2026. Polymarket includes an 'Other' outcome for cancellation/no-winner scenarios, while Kalshi resolves such cases to No, but this is a presentation difference, not a substantive divergence in winner determination.Primary resolution logic: Official BNP Paribas Open website (https://bnpparibasopen.com/); credible news consensus as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves Yes if the named player wins the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men's Singles Championship
  • Market resolves No if the named player is eliminated, loses in any round, or becomes ineligible per tournament rules
  • Market resolves No (Kalshi) or Other (Polymarket) if the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond March 31, 2026
  • Market resolves No (Kalshi) or Other (Polymarket) if no winner is declared by March 31, 2026
  • Polymarket includes a catch-all 'another player' market that resolves Yes if any player not on the curated list wins the tournament

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Player Withdrawal or Ineligibility: If a listed player withdraws before or during the tournament, or becomes ineligible per ATP/tournament rules, their market resolves to No
  • Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 BNP Paribas Open is cancelled or postponed to after March 31, 2026, Kalshi markets resolve to No; Polymarket markets resolve to Other
  • No Winner Declared: If no champion is declared by March 31, 2026 due to force majeure or other circumstances, Kalshi resolves to No; Polymarket resolves to Other
  • Polymarket 'Another Player' Outcome: Polymarket includes a market for 'another player' winning; this resolves Yes if any player not on the 26-player curated list wins the tournament
  • Tie or Shared Title: If tournament rules result in a shared or co-championship (highly unlikely in tennis), resolution follows official BNP Paribas Open determination
Timing: Resolution occurs upon official announcement of the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men's Singles Champion by the BNP Paribas Open or ATP. The tournament is scheduled for March 1-15, 2026; all markets must resolve by March 31, 2026, or default to No (Kalshi) or Other (Polymarket)Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.