TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner
Volume:
$6,466,595
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
The 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is a prestigious chess competition scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026, where eight elite players compete in a round-robin format to determine the challenger for the World Chess Championship. These markets resolve based on which player wins the tournament, with both platforms offering individual player markets and Polymarket additionally offering an 'other' outcome for non-listed winners or cancellations.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents eight separate binary markets (one per player), each resolving YES if that specific player wins, while Polymarket uses a single multi-outcome market structure with placeholders and an 'someone else' catch-all option. The platforms have fundamentally different market architectures and resolution scopes, making direct outcome equivalence impossible.Hero Tip:
Kalshi bettors are trading individual player-win probabilities in isolated markets; Polymarket bettors are trading a unified pool where probabilities must sum to 100%. If you hold positions on both platforms, note that a YES resolution on Kalshi (one player wins) maps to exactly ONE YES on Polymarket, but the probability distributions and hedging dynamics are structurally different. Polymarket's 'someone else' option creates an additional outcome category absent from Kalshi.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi operates eight independent binary markets, each asking 'Will [Player X] win?' with a YES/NO resolution tied solely to that player's tournament outcome. No catch-all or 'other' category exists; each market is self-contained. Key quote: 'If [Player] wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket uses a unified multi-outcome market structure with 15 questions covering eight named players (some referenced as placeholders), plus an explicit 'someone else' option. Resolution is to 'the player that wins' with a fallback to 'Other' if the tournament is cancelled or postponed after April 30, 2026. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament' with 'Other' as a possible outcome if no winner is declared within the timeframe.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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