TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg - Halftime Result
Volume:
$1,775
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the halftime result of the Bundesliga match between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg scheduled for April 12, 2026. Markets track whether Mainz wins, Freiburg wins, or the match is tied after 45 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market definition is logically incoherent - it specifies that all three mutually exclusive halftime outcomes (Mainz win, Freiburg win, Draw) resolve to Yes, making the market always resolve Yes and therefore unresolvable as a predictive instrument. Polymarket correctly structures three separate binary markets for each outcome.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading on Kalshi until the market definition is corrected. The Kalshi market as written will always resolve Yes and provides no information value. Focus trading activity on Polymarket's three properly-structured binary markets which allow genuine price discovery on each halftime outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Single catch-all market that resolves Yes for any halftime outcome (Mainz win, Freiburg win, or Draw). All three conditions independently trigger Yes resolution, making the market logically tautological and uninvestable.
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Draw at halftime (Yes/No), Freiburg leading at halftime (Yes/No), Mainz leading at halftime (Yes/No). Each market is mutually exclusive and resolves based on the actual halftime result. Resolution source is official governing body statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus thereafter.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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