TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV
Volume:
$518,135
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga soccer match between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV scheduled for February 20, 2026. Polymarket offers three binary markets on match outcome (Mainz win, draw, Hamburg win), while Kalshi offers four over/under markets on combined goals scored by both teams.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi cover different market types (match outcome vs. goal totals) with divergent cancellation logic. Polymarket's draw market resolves Yes on cancellation, while win markets resolve No; Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation rule.Hero Tip:
Monitor both platforms for cancellation/postponement announcements. Be aware that on Polymarket, a canceled match is a draw-market win but a loss for both win markets. Kalshi goal markets lack explicit cancellation guidance; clarify with the platform before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three binary outcome markets (Mainz win, draw, Hamburg win) resolving on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Cancellation with no make-up: Mainz and Hamburg win markets resolve No; draw market resolves Yes. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No"' (win markets) vs. 'this market will resolve "Yes"' (draw market).
- Kalshi: Four over/under goal total markets (>3.5, >2.5, >1.5, >4.5 combined goals). Resolution based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided. Quote: 'If Hamburg and Mainz collectively score more than X total goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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