TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg
Description
1. FC Union Berlin will face VfL Wolfsburg in a Bundesliga match scheduled for April 18, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with three possible outcomes: Union Berlin victory, Wolfsburg victory, or a draw. Markets across platforms will resolve based on the official match result, with contingencies for postponement (markets remain open) or cancellation without rescheduling (treated as no Union Berlin/Wolfsburg win, or yes for draw).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcome markets (Union Berlin win, Wolfsburg win, Draw) resolve YES simultaneously for the same match, creating a logical contradiction where exactly one outcome must occur but all three markets can resolve YES.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi markets for this event. The resolution logic is fundamentally broken—you cannot have all three mutually exclusive outcomes resolve YES at the same time. Polymarket offers coherent, mutually exclusive markets where exactly one will resolve YES. Trade Polymarket only.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive binary markets: Union Berlin Win (YES/NO), Draw (YES/NO), Wolfsburg Win (YES/NO). Exactly one resolves YES based on the 90-minute match result. Resolution source is official Bundesliga statistics or credible consensus if unavailable within 2 hours. Cancellation with no makeup resolves Draw to YES, others to NO.
- Kalshi: Three separate markets, each stating 'If [outcome] occurs, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility: the match will have exactly one outcome (Union Berlin win, Wolfsburg win, or Draw), yet all three Kalshi markets are written to resolve YES for their respective outcomes. The rules do not specify what happens if the other outcomes occur, leaving two of the three markets with undefined resolution states.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.