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406,065

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2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg
polymarket
kalshi

1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg

Volume:
$1,438,659

VfL Wolfsburg

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Apr 18, 9:30 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

VfL Wolfsburg

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$174,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Wolfsburg

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$99,229
N/A
N/A
$78,859
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1. FC Union Berlin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,032,214
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Union Berlin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78,774
N/A
N/A
$69,768
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (1. FC Union Berlin vs. VfL Wolfsburg)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,778
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,650
N/A
N/A
$14,308
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

1. FC Union Berlin will face VfL Wolfsburg in a Bundesliga match scheduled for April 18, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with three possible outcomes: Union Berlin victory, Wolfsburg victory, or a draw. Markets across platforms will resolve based on the official match result, with contingencies for postponement (markets remain open) or cancellation without rescheduling (treated as no Union Berlin/Wolfsburg win, or yes for draw).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcome markets (Union Berlin win, Wolfsburg win, Draw) resolve YES simultaneously for the same match, creating a logical contradiction where exactly one outcome must occur but all three markets can resolve YES.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi markets for this event. The resolution logic is fundamentally broken—you cannot have all three mutually exclusive outcomes resolve YES at the same time. Polymarket offers coherent, mutually exclusive markets where exactly one will resolve YES. Trade Polymarket only.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive binary markets: Union Berlin Win (YES/NO), Draw (YES/NO), Wolfsburg Win (YES/NO). Exactly one resolves YES based on the 90-minute match result. Resolution source is official Bundesliga statistics or credible consensus if unavailable within 2 hours. Cancellation with no makeup resolves Draw to YES, others to NO.
  • Kalshi: Three separate markets, each stating 'If [outcome] occurs, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility: the match will have exactly one outcome (Union Berlin win, Wolfsburg win, or Draw), yet all three Kalshi markets are written to resolve YES for their respective outcomes. The rules do not specify what happens if the other outcomes occur, leaving two of the three markets with undefined resolution states.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.