TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910
Volume:
$1,876,936
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, April 5, 2026 between 1. FC Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli 1910.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcomes (St. Pauli win, Tie, Union Berlin win) resolve to YES, making it impossible to distinguish between them or produce a meaningful settlement. Polymarket uses standard binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes, creating a fundamental incompatibility in how these platforms settle the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across Polymarket and Kalshi simultaneously on this event group. Kalshi's market will resolve YES regardless of the actual match result, while Polymarket markets will resolve based on the true outcome. This creates an arbitrage trap: you cannot hedge Polymarket positions with Kalshi, and Kalshi provides no information about the actual match winner.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes—one for Union Berlin win, one for St. Pauli win, and one for draw. Each market resolves YES or NO based on the actual match result, ensuring exactly one outcome occurs and only one market resolves YES. Key quote: 'If 1. FC Union Berlin wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market structure resolves to YES for all three possible outcomes (St. Pauli win, Tie, Union Berlin win), making it impossible to distinguish between them. The market will always resolve YES regardless of the actual match result, rendering it informationally useless and logically contradictory. Key quote: 'If St. Pauli wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Union Berlin wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.