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400,720

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30,097

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2,633

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5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund
kalshi
polymarket

1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Volume:
$2,447,377

Dortmund

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 8, 2026

Closed: Mar 7, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Dortmund

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,015,604
N/A
N/A
$635,087
Settled
Yes
polymarket

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$944,219
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

FC Köln

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$199,793
N/A
N/A
$134,177
Settled
No
polymarket

1. FC Köln

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$145,536
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,407
N/A
N/A
$42,691
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58,818
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers a Bundesliga soccer match between 1. FC Köln and BV Borussia 09 Dortmund scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket track three mutually exclusive outcomes: Köln win, Dortmund win, or draw, all evaluated at 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market descriptions contain a logical contradiction stating all three outcome markets resolve to Yes simultaneously, which is impossible in a three-way soccer result. Polymarket uses standard binary logic with asymmetric cancellation handling (Draw resolves Yes, others No).Hero tip: Kalshi's contradiction is a drafting error; settlement will follow standard soccer logic where exactly one outcome wins. On Polymarket, note the asymmetric cancellation rule: if the game is canceled with no makeup, the Draw market resolves Yes while Köln and Dortmund markets resolve No. Always cross-check the official Bundesliga website within 2 hours of match end.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Three separate markets for Köln win, Dortmund win, and Tie, each described as resolving to Yes if their outcome occurs. However, the market descriptions state all three resolve to Yes, creating a logical impossibility. Actual settlement will follow standard three-way logic: one Yes, two No.
  • Polymarket: Three binary markets (Köln win, Draw, Dortmund win) with clear mutual exclusivity. Cancellation without makeup: Köln and Dortmund markets resolve No, Draw resolves Yes. Postponement keeps all markets open. Primary source is official Bundesliga statistics within 2 hours, with credible reporting as fallback.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.