TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Total volume:
$39,479
Volume 24h:
$866
78%
Liquidity:
$115,865
13%
Open interest:
$29,385
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers markets predicting whether specific national teams will advance to the knockout stages (Round of 16 or later) of the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. Markets resolve Yes if a team qualifies from group play, and No if they are mathematically eliminated or the tournament is cancelled/significantly delayed.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's Mexico market uses inverted elimination logic (Yes = any elimination or tournament win) versus Polymarket/Predict's standard advancement logic (Yes = advances to knockout stages). All other 48 teams show unified resolution criteria across Polymarket and Predict.Hero Tip:
Kalshi Mexico is a distinct product with opposite payoff. For the 48 other team markets (Polymarket + Predict), treat as unified. Monitor FIFA official announcements for group stage completion and knockout round confirmation by July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET cutoff.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Mexico market resolves Yes on elimination at any stage (Group, R16, QF, SF, Final) or tournament victory. Inverted logic: Yes means Mexico did NOT advance past their elimination point or won the tournament. Key quote: 'If Mexico is eliminated in the Group Stage... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Mexico wins the Final... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket & Predict: Mexico market (and all 48 other team markets) resolve Yes only if the team advances to knockout stages. Resolves No if mathematically eliminated or tournament cancelled/delayed past July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key quote: 'This market will resolve Yes if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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