TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Argentina vs. Austria
Total volume:
$3,559
Volume 24h:
$367
0%
Liquidity:
$30,018
9%
Open interest:
$1,809
5%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the FIFA World Cup match between Argentina and Austria scheduled for June 22, 2026. Markets across four platforms (Kalshi, Limitless, Polymarket, and Predict) offer binary outcomes on Argentina win, Austria win, and Draw results, all measured at 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Asymmetric cancellation/no-result handling across platforms. Win markets (Argentina/Austria) and Draw markets follow different resolution paths when match is not completed or canceled, creating conflicting payoff scenarios.Hero Tip:
Traders should note that a canceled match produces opposite outcomes on Draw vs. Win markets across platforms. Limitless and Polymarket/Predict diverge on no-result timing (July 22 deadline vs. immediate cancellation). Kalshi's cancellation rule is implicit. Clarify postponement vs. cancellation definitions with each platform before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Treats all three outcomes uniformly: if the specified outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, market resolves YES. No explicit cancellation or no-result clause provided. Ambiguous on match postponement or cancellation scenarios.
- Limitless: Argentina and Austria win markets resolve NO if match lacks official result by July 22, 2026, 17:00 UTC. Draw market resolves YES if match is not completed by deadline. Creates asymmetric payoff: no-result favors Draw traders, penalizes Win traders.
- Polymarket: Argentina and Austria win markets resolve NO if match is canceled with no make-up. Draw market resolves YES if match is canceled. Postponement keeps markets open until completion. Asymmetric cancellation logic mirrors Predict.
- Predict: Identical to Polymarket: Win markets (Argentina/Austria) resolve NO on outright cancellation; Draw market resolves YES on cancellation. Postponement keeps markets open. Consistent with Polymarket but diverges from Kalshi and Limitless.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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